The Electoral College

[fabrisse]

I'm looking at 270 to win, the Toss-Up map. It says there are 130 electoral votes in play. The guaranteed are 191 for the Republicans and 217 for the Democrats. I'm not certain I agree with some of their calls.


For instance, Utah was overwhelmingly anti-Trump and doesn't have Trump's usual demographic strengths (more college educated people, and the Mormons really can't get behind some of his other issues, but especially his Muslim-baiting. They're big believers in "soul-freedom."). Idaho which has a huge Mormon population may be in play for the same reasons as Utah. That's ten votes currently counted for the Republicans which might not be as secure as they think.
ETA: An Article from Slate on the Mormons and Trump

Arkansas may also go for Hillary purely because they still like Bill.

Of the disputed states:

Colorado may split between the Denver and Aspen pot-smoking crowd and the Colorado Springs and other heavily military areas crowd. I don't know what the military take on Trump is. With his defamation of McCain's POW status and a well-liked retired general speaking for Hillary at the Democratic convention they may hold their noses and vote Democrat. If they decide that the social conservatism the Republicans represent is worth a vote for Trump, then, it will be sheer boots on the ground as to which side wins.

Wisconsin may be split the same way between their urban and rural populations which, again, means boots on the ground.

Virginia's regional split is finally beginning to tilt toward Northern Virginia (Metropolitan Washington). There's also the fact that Virginia's been a battle ground for women's bodies. Ken Cuccinelli lost decisively because he was trying to demand ultrasounds before abortions and trying to make sodomy illegal again. Bear in mind that sodomy includes oral sex. The women of Southern Virginia, who are conservative both socially and financially, voted for Kaine overwhelmingly, in spite of his ties to developers. In other words, we may get Virginia going Democrat, at least for President.

I think Florida may go Republican in spite of their retirement population being mostly Democrat.

Based on polls taken last week, Pennsylvania is just barely beginning to lean Democrat, so I'll call it that way..

I predict Nevada will go Democrat.

Here's my call to arms. If you can vote early without a crowd, please do it. If that's not possible, and you have a job which will allow it, take election day off, especially if you're in a "boots on the ground" state.

I'm going to leave this as is and revisit it on November 9 to see if I was prescient about anything.

Comments

[tediousandbrief.livejournal.com]

Utah and Idaho are still vastly conservative. If Clinton wins either it will be Republican Mormons breaking for Johnson. It is a possibility, but still I don't think there will be enough of it.

Arkansas I doubt will go for Clinton.

Nevada will be going for the Democrats is my guess. Wisconsin probably too as well as Pennsylvania and Virgnia.

Florida may be the one state that Trump gets, with Pennsylvalia and Ohio as other possibilities. There are some rumors of North Carolina and Georgia being in play as well, but they likely will just be close states rather than really in play for Clinton.

[fabrisse.livejournal.com]

I think the distrust of Trump will outweigh the dislike of Hillary in Utah. I'm less certain in Idaho.

I doubt North Carolina or Georgia is in play, but the game changes throughout the south if the Baptist Convention comes out anti-Trump which is a possibility.

Are any statements likely on the Catholic side? Not the Pope, sadly, because too many conservative US Catholics aren't paying attention to him, but from the Bishops or Cardinals? There are significant Catholic populations in Louisiana still which with the black population could(?) put it in play.

[innerslytherin]

I'm predicting that Indiana will actually go Democrat because more of us despise Mike Pence than like him. *crossing my fingers*

[fabrisse.livejournal.com]

Heh. That would be sweet.

[vicki_rae.livejournal.com]

I really like this website. They started with the 2004 election.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

They're a couple of computer science guys who track all the polls and do a daily update of the maps and a daily article. Updates are in the middle of the night though. One guy is an American ex-pat who lives in the Netherlands because his wife is from there. Still a US citizen though. He signs his posts with a (V). The other guy is in the US and signs his posts with a (Z).

[fabrisse.livejournal.com]

Thank you. I'm hoping that there are enough sensible people that Trump won't get in, but it's worth following the battlegrounds.