The Electoral College
Aug. 2nd, 2016 02:03 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
fabrisseI'm looking at 270 to win, the Toss-Up map. It says there are 130 electoral votes in play. The guaranteed are 191 for the Republicans and 217 for the Democrats. I'm not certain I agree with some of their calls.
For instance, Utah was overwhelmingly anti-Trump and doesn't have Trump's usual demographic strengths (more college educated people, and the Mormons really can't get behind some of his other issues, but especially his Muslim-baiting. They're big believers in "soul-freedom."). Idaho which has a huge Mormon population may be in play for the same reasons as Utah. That's ten votes currently counted for the Republicans which might not be as secure as they think.
ETA: An Article from Slate on the Mormons and Trump
Arkansas may also go for Hillary purely because they still like Bill.
Of the disputed states:
Colorado may split between the Denver and Aspen pot-smoking crowd and the Colorado Springs and other heavily military areas crowd. I don't know what the military take on Trump is. With his defamation of McCain's POW status and a well-liked retired general speaking for Hillary at the Democratic convention they may hold their noses and vote Democrat. If they decide that the social conservatism the Republicans represent is worth a vote for Trump, then, it will be sheer boots on the ground as to which side wins.
Wisconsin may be split the same way between their urban and rural populations which, again, means boots on the ground.
Virginia's regional split is finally beginning to tilt toward Northern Virginia (Metropolitan Washington). There's also the fact that Virginia's been a battle ground for women's bodies. Ken Cuccinelli lost decisively because he was trying to demand ultrasounds before abortions and trying to make sodomy illegal again. Bear in mind that sodomy includes oral sex. The women of Southern Virginia, who are conservative both socially and financially, voted for Kaine overwhelmingly, in spite of his ties to developers. In other words, we may get Virginia going Democrat, at least for President.
I think Florida may go Republican in spite of their retirement population being mostly Democrat.
Based on polls taken last week, Pennsylvania is just barely beginning to lean Democrat, so I'll call it that way..
I predict Nevada will go Democrat.
Here's my call to arms. If you can vote early without a crowd, please do it. If that's not possible, and you have a job which will allow it, take election day off, especially if you're in a "boots on the ground" state.
I'm going to leave this as is and revisit it on November 9 to see if I was prescient about anything.
For instance, Utah was overwhelmingly anti-Trump and doesn't have Trump's usual demographic strengths (more college educated people, and the Mormons really can't get behind some of his other issues, but especially his Muslim-baiting. They're big believers in "soul-freedom."). Idaho which has a huge Mormon population may be in play for the same reasons as Utah. That's ten votes currently counted for the Republicans which might not be as secure as they think.
ETA: An Article from Slate on the Mormons and Trump
Arkansas may also go for Hillary purely because they still like Bill.
Of the disputed states:
Colorado may split between the Denver and Aspen pot-smoking crowd and the Colorado Springs and other heavily military areas crowd. I don't know what the military take on Trump is. With his defamation of McCain's POW status and a well-liked retired general speaking for Hillary at the Democratic convention they may hold their noses and vote Democrat. If they decide that the social conservatism the Republicans represent is worth a vote for Trump, then, it will be sheer boots on the ground as to which side wins.
Wisconsin may be split the same way between their urban and rural populations which, again, means boots on the ground.
Virginia's regional split is finally beginning to tilt toward Northern Virginia (Metropolitan Washington). There's also the fact that Virginia's been a battle ground for women's bodies. Ken Cuccinelli lost decisively because he was trying to demand ultrasounds before abortions and trying to make sodomy illegal again. Bear in mind that sodomy includes oral sex. The women of Southern Virginia, who are conservative both socially and financially, voted for Kaine overwhelmingly, in spite of his ties to developers. In other words, we may get Virginia going Democrat, at least for President.
I think Florida may go Republican in spite of their retirement population being mostly Democrat.
Based on polls taken last week, Pennsylvania is just barely beginning to lean Democrat, so I'll call it that way..
I predict Nevada will go Democrat.
Here's my call to arms. If you can vote early without a crowd, please do it. If that's not possible, and you have a job which will allow it, take election day off, especially if you're in a "boots on the ground" state.
I'm going to leave this as is and revisit it on November 9 to see if I was prescient about anything.
