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Hurricanes
Sep. 19th, 2005 08:43 amI'm home sick today, so I have a chance to catch up on a few things.
The first thing that I've been meaning to get to for awhile is hurricanes in general. I know that![[livejournal.com profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/external/lj-userinfo.gif)
eanja knows far more about the subject than I, but about ten years ago, I had to do some basic research into Atlantic hurricanes.
It was for Disney Cruise Lines back before their existence had been announced to the public. One of the men I was working for was named the VP in charge of this new speculative project, and he had me doing some fact checking for him. The biggest assignment was to find out about Atlantic hurricanes, particularly those that struck Florida.
There was an internet site and, between it and the contact number on the site, I was able to find out what I needed to. The first question was: "What is the average number of hurricanes in a year?" The second question was the same, but for tropical storms. The answer has stayed with me. There was one year after the tradition of naming the storms began when there were thirteen (M in the alphabet). Since the research went back nearly 100 years (i.e. pre-naming), I found no other year in that time frame with more than thirteen -- and only one other year had 13. There wasn't a single year that didn't have at least one. The average was eight although more years had fewer than eight. I checked my math several times. And other than the one year that got to M, no year made it past K in the alphabet.
A small digression: I think naming the storms was a brilliant idea. Someday, I'll tell y'all about my experiences in the very odd Hurricane named Agnes.
I completed my research through the then current year of 1995. The very next year, there were thirteen hurricanes/tropical storms (Marco). I figured it could be an anomaly. And the next year, 1997, there were only seven -- about average.
But 1998 was the first year they made it to "N" and the year after still had twelve (Lenny). There were fifteen in both 2000 and 2001, thirteen in 2002 (although the last only made it to depression status and was therefore unnamed), sixteen in 2004, and in this year that's not yet over, we've made it to "Rita."
I'm not a scientist. I do, however, remember my third grade introduction to the idea of global warming. As little kids we were told that the first big sign would be an increase in the strength and frequency of hurricanes. Going through Agnes at summer camp three years later helped cement my ideas of the terror (we ran out of food, briefly) and risks (the drinking water was suspect until they traced the artesian well system it came from) of hurricanes. It's still my first thought when I look into recycling in a new neighborhood -- could this help prevent hurricanes. What can I say, this picture of global warming caught me young.
In fourth grade I did my first independent scientific research paper (I was in 8th grade English and second grade math, but I don't remember what science class I was in. I suspect it was higher than fourth grade but can't be certain.). It dealt with nuclear power and the runoff from the cooling systems. This was my first encounter with how small a change had to be to effect something much larger. One degree of temperature difference in a river could cause all sorts of weirdness when it came to the algae and fish in the ecosystem.
We have a President who thinks global warming is a myth. When I was in third and fourth grade, I was taught we could prevent global warming if we tried. I know that statistics have to be examined more closely than I have for any real conclusions to be drawn.
But we're going through a period where there are more hurricanes per year than in the documentable past. I'm certainly willing to come to a tentative conclusion that global warming is at least beginning if not advanced.
I know the most immediate problem is to help those who are devastated by the results of the current spate, but while this is still fresh in people's minds, I think we may also need to start thinking about the causes and how we handle the whirlwind we've sown.
The first thing that I've been meaning to get to for awhile is hurricanes in general. I know that
eanja knows far more about the subject than I, but about ten years ago, I had to do some basic research into Atlantic hurricanes.It was for Disney Cruise Lines back before their existence had been announced to the public. One of the men I was working for was named the VP in charge of this new speculative project, and he had me doing some fact checking for him. The biggest assignment was to find out about Atlantic hurricanes, particularly those that struck Florida.
There was an internet site and, between it and the contact number on the site, I was able to find out what I needed to. The first question was: "What is the average number of hurricanes in a year?" The second question was the same, but for tropical storms. The answer has stayed with me. There was one year after the tradition of naming the storms began when there were thirteen (M in the alphabet). Since the research went back nearly 100 years (i.e. pre-naming), I found no other year in that time frame with more than thirteen -- and only one other year had 13. There wasn't a single year that didn't have at least one. The average was eight although more years had fewer than eight. I checked my math several times. And other than the one year that got to M, no year made it past K in the alphabet.
A small digression: I think naming the storms was a brilliant idea. Someday, I'll tell y'all about my experiences in the very odd Hurricane named Agnes.
I completed my research through the then current year of 1995. The very next year, there were thirteen hurricanes/tropical storms (Marco). I figured it could be an anomaly. And the next year, 1997, there were only seven -- about average.
But 1998 was the first year they made it to "N" and the year after still had twelve (Lenny). There were fifteen in both 2000 and 2001, thirteen in 2002 (although the last only made it to depression status and was therefore unnamed), sixteen in 2004, and in this year that's not yet over, we've made it to "Rita."
I'm not a scientist. I do, however, remember my third grade introduction to the idea of global warming. As little kids we were told that the first big sign would be an increase in the strength and frequency of hurricanes. Going through Agnes at summer camp three years later helped cement my ideas of the terror (we ran out of food, briefly) and risks (the drinking water was suspect until they traced the artesian well system it came from) of hurricanes. It's still my first thought when I look into recycling in a new neighborhood -- could this help prevent hurricanes. What can I say, this picture of global warming caught me young.
In fourth grade I did my first independent scientific research paper (I was in 8th grade English and second grade math, but I don't remember what science class I was in. I suspect it was higher than fourth grade but can't be certain.). It dealt with nuclear power and the runoff from the cooling systems. This was my first encounter with how small a change had to be to effect something much larger. One degree of temperature difference in a river could cause all sorts of weirdness when it came to the algae and fish in the ecosystem.
We have a President who thinks global warming is a myth. When I was in third and fourth grade, I was taught we could prevent global warming if we tried. I know that statistics have to be examined more closely than I have for any real conclusions to be drawn.
But we're going through a period where there are more hurricanes per year than in the documentable past. I'm certainly willing to come to a tentative conclusion that global warming is at least beginning if not advanced.
I know the most immediate problem is to help those who are devastated by the results of the current spate, but while this is still fresh in people's minds, I think we may also need to start thinking about the causes and how we handle the whirlwind we've sown.
